White Men are in the bag. White Women, however,…

1. Rows represent simulation results of my desired model
2. Columns represent individual outcome variables of interest
3. Multiple.Operations is used to establish the data table
4. The results in each cell entry are based on random numbers applied to individual variables within my model
5. The entire table recalculates for any change to a model parameter, automatic or manual at my choice

Once such data table is established, I then perform my desired statistical analysis.

In the Microsoft Excel environment, the data table results are achieved by using the RAND() function inside of the model calculations, and a data table. The issues with Calc were appropriately stated by Nathan Fleming is his description of using OpenOffice Calc for ESD.70:

The Monte Carlo simulation is performed by a combination of the RAND() function and the data table feature in Excel. Calc has the RAND() function, and is able to replicate the data table feature using a feature called ‘multiple operations’; however, when Calc tries to create a data table using a formula based on RAND(), it fills the data table with identical values of output. It is supposed to produce varied results by having varied the inputs to the formula using the RAND() function—this is what is does in Excel. Two thousand identical outputs do not make a Monte Carlo simulation.

I encourage others to please comment on these steps, as I sure it can be improved upon.

My process of discovery

1.  I first established my model, using the Rand() function, making note of the variables that include the function. A sample function would be
   

   INDEX(B2:B8;MATCH(RAND();A2:A8;1))

   Where A2:A8 contains cumulative probabilities that the outcomes in B2:B8 occur.

2. I create a data table of random numbers, I used rows for a simulation number, and columns for variables. This table can be created from copying and paste special values for the RAND() function, or from any random number table. The number of entries will be equal to the number of random numbers required by the model, for example, 2000 simulations with 3 variables will be 6000 random numbers in a table 2000 rows and 3 columns. Each row and column should be labeled with a unique identifier. I use simple numbers in ascending order to make the match functions work efficiently. Assume for this example, that the 6000 random numbers are placed in cells AA2:AC2001, the simulations are numbered 1 to 2000 in cells Z2:Z2001, and the varibles are numbered 1, 2, and 3 in cells AA1:AC1
3. For each formula with a RAND() function, I select an identifier corresponding to the column identifier in step 2. Assume in this example that cell D2 contains the variable identifier.
4. I select  an open cell and use it as an indicator of the simulation number run through the model calculatins. Assume in this example, cell D1 contains the simulation number.
5. I rewrite all formulas replacing the RAND() function, with another index function that looks up the random number from the table created in step 2. This index function will match the row to the simulation number (selected cell in step 4), and the column to the variable identifier in step 3. Hence, the formula in step one becomes:
   

   INDEX(B2:B8;MATCH(INDEX(AA2:AC2001;MATCH(D1;Z2:Z2001;1);MATCH(D2;AA1:AC1;1));A2:A8;1))

These steps, in effect, remove RAND() from the model, by using the index function to return a random number identified by the simulation and varible identifier.  Thus, variables with different identifiers, have independent random numbers, and each simulation uses one and only one set of random numbers.  And now, the Calc multiple.operations feature works as intended to produce the desired data table. To complete my data table, I make a list in a column of the desired number of simulations, in this example my first column contains a simple list of 1 to 2000. I perform multiple.operations function with a single row input, D1 for my simulation number, and select the output variables of my desire. The result is a data table with the qualities described above.

The core of this procedure, is to make transparent the random number used in the model, rather than to leave them as part of the internal calculation through the use of the RAND() function inside the formula. These steps are simplified in the model design process by knowing how many simulations your experiment will be based on and the number of variables desired for the model. Thus the formula replacement process is omitted and initial formulas are prepared to call the appropriate random number stream for each variable independently.

“We human beings have enormous difficulty in focusing on the present; we’re always thinking about what we did, about how we could have done it better, about the consequences of our actions, and about why we didn’t act as we should have.  Or else we think about the future, about what we’re going to do tomorrow, what precautions we should take, what dangers await us around the next corner, how to avoid what we don’t want and how to get what we have always dreamed of.”

Hum! do we?  Do people avoid the present this much? Worry to this degree?  I think for many the answer is yes.  However, those with greater confidence, greater levels of self-esteem, the focus on the present is much much greater.  And in the present, we think about using our abilities, and our reaction to those events we readily understand that are out of our control.   When events occur, and certainty exist, we focus our thoughts on what we learned from the experience, and how we would adjust our skills and efforts—our knack for living life.   And to what do we aim, well that’s a mixture of the person, for many people its the dreams Paulo writes of, but for others, and I work to include myself in this group, the aim is for a proper balance in our relationships:  self, work, family, community.

In his time of struggle, and all of us have these, Paulo sets off on a journey to discover and energize himself.  Travel and vacation are commonly prescribed solutions.  I’ve recently had several great adventures precisely because I’ve traveled and allowed myself to discover, rather than travel to see some monument.   No checklist of things to see, places to go, nor artifacts to collect have been included on my trail.  Some people find it disappointing when they ask, “What did you see on your trip to Brazil?”

And I reply, “I spent time with my friends, my Brazilian family.  I took the train and bus everyday to class, I studied, I even, on occasion, helped Vitoria with her homework.”   For many this ends the conversation.  A welcome relief for the both of us, because I didn’t take the time away to come back an entertain, nor did I go to become a testimonial for your travel.  I went for my self discovery, and to create the proximity with my family, I traveled to improve my life.

Thus, travel taken appropriately can be full of self discovery.  A trip separates you from your routine.  The determinate, however, is not the separation, but what you with the lack of demands and expectations that are your rourtine.  The choice are worry about the past or  contemplate some material achievement, or experiment and enhance your knack for living.   I enjoyed the later in my trips to Cuba and Barzil in 2011.  The opportunity to observe and inquire of others about life, to step into another culture seeking appreciation and understanding, and to become trustworthy enough so that strangers are willing to share, these are the activities that enhance your life.  Me, I still have lots to learn about balancing life’s relationships.  My journeys will continue.

The 2008 Democratic nomination process was closer, it appears, than the Republicans will be at achieving unity.  The primary campaign featuring Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton was fierce, emotional, and difficult.  However, there was unity in the end.  This Republican primary season has achieved contention, but looks incapable of galvanizing.  Time will tell.   The telling feature of the primary process to date is a lack of a middle ground coalescing.  Expectantly, that’s the danger of having evangelist (of any type) as a large subgroup–They don’t negotiate as their mission is to sway or drag you to their side.   I expect the evangelic members of the tea party and other republican sub-groups will need defeat at the hands of the masses.   Without out right rejection by the mass of the population, the mission and vision will not get tweaked.   For the Republicans, I think they are headed for a Gingrich nomination–the fiscal conservative money people will lose out to the evangelist base.   The country, however, is not ready for this extreme, thus leading me to predict, a second Obama term.  Can’t see what else would feel like an outright rejection.  Oh, well there would be one thing, Obama beats Gingrich by a larger margin than Reagan beat Carter.  That might cause a shift in energy. Of course, a Gingrich presidency would also cause a shift in energy and participation.

Either way 2012 will be a year to remember in history.

http://www.redstate.com/erick/2012/01/21/newt-gingrich-wins-what-it-means/

Five O’Clock Club
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• America’s Service Locator connects individuals to employment and training opportunities available at local One-Stop Career Centers. The Web site provides contact information for a range of local work-related services, including unemployment benefits, career development, and educational opportunities.
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• mySkills myFuture helps laid-off workers and other career changers find new occupations to explore. Users can identify occupations that require skills and knowledge similar to their current or previous job, learn more about these suggested matches, locate local training programs, and/or apply for jobs.
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Occupational Outlook Handbook, Latest Edition

For hundreds of different types of jobs—such as teacher, lawyer, and nurse—the Occupational Outlook Handbook tells you:

• the training and education needed
• earnings
• expected job prospects
• what workers do on the job
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Brain Rules

Book by Dr. John Medina, a molecular biologist.  In Brain Rules,  Dr. Medina shares his lifelong interest in how the brain sciences might influence the way we teach our children and the way we work. In each chapter, he describes a brain rule—what scientists know for sure about how our brains work—and then offers transformative ideas for our daily lives.

Dietary Reference Intakes for Macronutrients

A Report of the Panel on Macronutrients, Subcommittees on Upper Reference Levels of Nutrients and Interpretation and Uses of Dietary Reference Intakes, and the Standing Committee on the Scientific Evaluation of Dietary Reference Intake.   The report specifying what nutritional science knows and does not yet know regarding the body’s use and need for the macronutrients—Energy, Carbohydrate, Fiber, Fat, Fatty Acids, Cholesterol, Protein, and Amino Acids.

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ExRx.net (Exercise Prescription on the Net) is a free resource for the exercise professional, coach, or fitness enthusiast featuring comprehensive exercise libraries (>1400 exercises), fitness assessment calculators, and reference articles.
ExRx.net is a recommended resource in ACSM’s Resource Manual for Guidelines for Exercise Testing and Prescription, 5th ed. (pgs 224, 349). ExRx.net is also a NSCA authorized CEU provider.

Nutrient Database

The nutrient database as maintained by the agricultural research service of the United States Department of Agriculture.  If you need to know the nutrient profile for a food, if it has been credibly measured, it is here.

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The Glycemic Index

The ‘home of the glycemic index’ – the official website for the glycemic index and international GI database, which is based in the Human Nutrition Unit, School of Molecular Biosciences, University of Sydney. The website is updated and maintained by the University’s GI Group which includes research scientists and dietitians working in the area of glycemic index, health and nutrition including research into diet and weight loss, diabetes, cardiovascular disease and PCOS and headed by Professor Jennie Brand-Miller.

The glycemic index (GI) is a ranking of carbohydrates on a scale from 0 to 100 according to the extent to which they raise blood sugar levels after eating. Foods with a high GI are those which are rapidly digested and absorbed and result in marked fluctuations in blood sugar levels. Low-GI foods, by virtue of their slow digestion and absorption, produce gradual rises in blood sugar and insulin levels, and have proven benefits for health. Low GI diets have been shown to improve both glucose and lipid levels in people with diabetes (type 1 and type 2). They have benefits for weight control because they help control appetite and delay hunger. Low GI diets also reduce insulin levels and insulin resistance.

The Way We Eat Now

Cover article of the Harvard Magazine published May-June 2004.  The seminal account of the implication of bringing technology to food production and its impact on the human body.   Article draws heavily upon Eat, Drink, and Be Healthy: The Harvard Medical School Guide to Healthy Eating, arguably the best and most scientifically sound book on nutrition for the general public.

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FASB Financial Accounting Standards Board

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IASB – International Accounting Standards Board

The IFRS Foundation is an independent, not-for-profit private sector organization working in the public interest. Its principal objectives are:

• to develop a single set of high quality, understandable, enforceable and globally accepted international financial reporting standards (IFRSs) through its standard-setting body, the IASB;
• to promote the use and rigorous application of those standards;
• to take account of the financial reporting needs of emerging economies and small and medium-sized entities (SMEs); and
• to bring about convergence of national accounting standards and IFRSs to high quality solutions.

The governance and oversight of the activities undertaken by the IFRS Foundation and its standard-setting body rests with its Trustees, who are also responsible for safeguarding the independence of the IASB and ensuring the financing of the organisation. The Trustees are publicly accountable to a Monitoring Board of public authorities.

The IASB (International Accounting Standards Board) is the independent standard-setting body of the IFRS Foundation. Its members (currently 15 full-time members) are responsible for the development and publication of IFRSs, including the IFRS for SMEs and for approving Interpretations of IFRSs as developed by the IFRS Interpretations Committee (formerly called the IFRIC).

The Public Company Accounting Oversight Board

The PCAOB is a nonprofit corporation established by the United States Congress to oversee the audits of public companies in order to protect investors and the public interest by promoting informative, accurate, and independent audit reports. The PCAOB also oversees the audits of broker-dealers, including compliance reports filed pursuant to federal securities laws, to promote investor protection.

The Tax Foundation

The Tax Foundation seeks to educate taxpayers about sound tax policy and the size of the tax burden borne by Americans at all levels of government. From its founding in 1937, the Tax Foundation has been grounded in the belief that the dissemination of basic information about government finance is the foundation of sound policy in a free society.

All Tax Foundation research is guided by the following principles of sound tax policy, which should serve as touchstones for good tax policy everywhere:

Simplicity: Administrative costs are a loss to society, and complicated taxation undermines voluntary compliance by creating incentives to shelter and disguise income.

Transparency: Tax legislation should be based on sound legislative procedures and careful analysis. A good tax system requires informed taxpayers who understand how tax assessment, collection, and compliance works. There should be open hearings and revenue estimates should be fully explained and replicable.

Neutrality: The fewer economic decisions that are made for tax reasons, the better. The primary purpose of taxes is to raise needed revenue, not to micromanage the economy. The tax system should not favor certain industries, activities, or products.

Stability: When tax laws are in constant flux, long-range financial planning is difficult. Lawmakers should avoid enacting temporary tax laws, including tax holidays and amnesties.

No Retroactivity: As a corollary to the principle of stability, taxpayers should rely with confidence on the law as it exists when contracts are signed and transactions made.

Broad Bases and Low Rates: As a corollary to the principle of neutrality, lawmakers should avoid enacting targeted deductions, credits and exclusions. If such tax preferences are few, substantial revenue can be raised with low tax rates. Broad-based taxes can also produce relatively stable tax revenues from year to year.

AICPA Store

My preferred source of continuing education materials.  The courses are complete, challenging, well written, and good value for money.  The pricing is more expensive than some alternatives, but the value, historically, has been worth the additional prices.

One of the first impressions I had was the gate agent in Cancun who worked for Cuba airlines.  We noticed the variety of goods being checked as baggage.  And with a simple question—”What types of goods can be checked on Air Cuba?”—we began our journey of discovery.   The agent replied, “You can check anything you have?  We have checked in the past toilets, baseball equipment, anything.”  My brain went into overdrive.  “Why would this be?  Well it is an island with out major shipping lanes. So, how else will individuals get goods onto the island,” was my thought.  From this point on I went to understand a certain resourcefulness and practicalness I would learn

Front of the Havana airport. Sitting our our tour bus looking at the line of tour buses awaiting travelers

to appreciate about the Cuban people.  As we sat outside of the Havana airport I started to compare Cuba to many of the places I traveled in the world.  None compare directly, but the northeast of Brazil is not a bad place to start.  In many ways, I could have been in the Salvador airport or the Recife airport.  Yet in others Cuba is uniquely Cuba.  For example, I took in the comfort and quality of our bus.  Top notch really.  I liked the fact that the seats slide out into the aisle, which was a great use of space—in when people needed to walk down the aisle, out when seated and the riders wanted a little more personal space.

Highlights of our tour included visits to several museums dedicated to various aspects of Cuban culture, two artist where we saw displays of their work (it would be an understatement to say we visited their galleries), two community centers—one for children and one for senior citizens—visits to the countryside, and walking tours of Havana.   We did much more, but to recount the week should be many blog post.  A plus for the tour was the opportunity to meet people, and ask them questions, and hear for ourself, unscripted answers.  The benefit being, each of us on the tour, could assess our preconceived beliefs at our own pace.  A rare opportunity I thought.

The People

Like many countries where slavery was a major part of the economy, the mixture of the races is evident in the people.  However, in Cuba the revolution in 1959 marked a separation of the people.  My bias of Cuban people, developed with my American experience, includes Dezi Arnez, as well as Gloria Estafan.  I found the percentage of people with ethnic features linked to Africa surprisingly high in Cuba.   The following pictures are illustrate the Cuban people in all their shades.

Our host at the senior citizens community center. Alejando our tour guide in red. President of the local center in light blue pants.

Now I do not mean to imply that everyone is of African descent, but I do mean to imply that the relative percent of the population from African descent, was much higher than I anticipated.  One of my tour participants remarked that there was a perceived lack of racism (relative to the United States) in Cuba.  A fair representation of the quote would be, “You know, these people don’t seem hung up on race.  I find this really interesting.”  After reflecting on the trip, I’d have to agree.  Although the reasons why are complex and many.  Contrastingly, my perception of Cuban Americans is that they are very hung up on race.  No doubt an unfair generalization to Cuban Americans, but it is my reality.

Street scene in Havana

Music was everywhere. Can’t think of many places where we did not have music. As well, if a live performance occurred, someone was either passing a hat for tips, or selling a CD of the musicians work. This part felt very much like Venice Beach hear in Southern California. Everyone with a little hustle, and something to sell on the side. And yes, no one was limited to the first object presented. If you wanted something different, they were there provides a service, for a fee, but a service nonetheless. An obvious contrast to the perception that people are content with their government rations and safety net.

Three of our host at the children's community center. Their future aspirations--stewardess, doctor, and singer

These young ladies were part of a group of about eight that came to the community center on their day off, Sunday, to host our tour, and interact with us. The we asked the children about their aspirations, what they wanted to be when they grew up. The variety of answers was similar to what you’d expect from any group of eleven or twelve year olds in the US.  The youngsters performed a song and choreographed dance for our group, and a few parents who were in the back of the room.  It was quite fun.

Retail Shopping

The noticeable difference in retail shopping was that in Cuba, the norm is to order with a person across a counter, and the person goes and retrieves the goods, accepts your money, and delivers the goods back to you.  The concept of shopping by selecting your own goods taking them to a counter, and paying is far from predominate.  Not absent, but far from the norm. On any corner in Havana, or in Viñales for that matter, we

Looking across in intersection from a park bench. Seeing the intersection and corner convenience store

see the corner convenience store.  We also see the driver of a typical car—no not a American car from the 1940′s or 1950′s, but a average car, Russian probably.  And a typical bicycle taxi—never in short supply in Havana.  The C-store is the green structure to the left.  People are lined up to make their purchase and will receive their goods across the counter.  Through many of the pictures included already, Havana does not have large spaces of parking or grass in front of structures.  Very much like European cities, the buildings come right up to the sidewalk.  Dense population is the norm.  Of the seven days I was there, I think I bought water five of the days.  And I always went to the same place.  A restaurant, pizza I think, with four or five tables.  Interestingly, I never saw anyone at the tables and I never went inside.

My daily ritual $1.50 for 1,500 milliliters of water and $1 for a Tandem

I went to the door, and my server, who always was standing or sitting next to the Nestle Ice Cream freezer, helped me.  A bottle of water, the big one, and a Tandem ice cream.  I have not seen Tandem before, half of the product is an ice cream sandwich, and the other half is an ice cream bar.  Perfect when you could not make up your mind which you wanted.  Just order half of both.  If you look closely at the picture, just beyond the freezer are the empty chairs I always saw.

In Cuba, the government provides everyone a ration of basic foods.  The ration is a fixed quantity per person and a household can purchase their ration once a month at a specific store.  The stores are plentiful, every three or four block in Havana.  When a household purchases their quantity, a book is marked and I presume stamped to document the purchase.   The stores do not all carry the full monthly ration so multiple trips are the norm.  And as it seems, in Havana at least, few people drive to the store, multiple shopping trips fit with the lifestyle.

I observed a produce store, well really a farmers market.  Stations with separate registers and scales existed.  One station in the rear had preserved meat.  Given the lack of air conditioning, it really is the only way meat could be sold in the location.  Although, I did see one gentleman, one a Sunday, pushing a wheelbarrow with a half of a hog in the wheelbarrow.  The meat was not preserved.  That pig was on the way to a barbecue, no doubt about in my mind.  Below is a picture of the market.

The lady in the pink top is selling fresh produce to the lady in the blue top

Well this has been a brief view of Cuba. In future post I will discuss more of our visit to the western provinces of Cuba where we visited Las Terrazas, and the Viñales valley.